DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Negotiations between the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and the Iranian government on a possible new nuclear deal began to make positive progress over the weekend, representatives from both countries said, although some sticking points remain and the specific conditions of both sides are unclear.
Notably, there is more optimism about reaching an agreement and comprehensive communication between the two long-time adversaries. U.S. and Iranian representatives agreed to hold more talks in Rome next week, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry described Saturday’s talks as taking place in a “constructive atmosphere and on the basis of mutual respect.”
This highlights the huge difference between the Biden administration’s efforts to try to revive the 2015 nuclear deal and the situation the Trump administration currently finds itself in: Washington’s advantage has changed dramatically, while Iran has become weaker and more vulnerable.
“I think the Iranians are more desperate than they were in 2022, and they’re facing a very weak economy,” said Gregory Blue, senior Iran and energy analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
“Iran’s regional position has been significantly weakened. They’re concerned about how much more pressure they can take — their internal position, and the state of internal discontent is probably only going to get worse. So they really want to get a deal soon, and Trump is giving them — or potentially giving them — an opportunity to get such a deal.”
Brow noted that Biden is also constrained by public opinion and risks being criticized as “soft” on Iran. Trump, he said, does not have the same constraints — the president is already seen as an Iran hawk and reimposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran shortly after taking office.
Iran’s economy has deteriorated dramatically since Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in 2018. The deal, brokered by the Obama administration in 2015 with Russia, China, the European Union and the United Kingdom, was intended to curb and strictly monitor Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
The Islamic Republic has already faced years of protests, a devaluing currency and a cost-of-living crisis, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria last year dealt a heavy blow to Iran, depriving it of its main ally in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Iran’s arch-enemy Israel has killed most of the top leadership of Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been adamantly opposed to negotiating with the United States, but senior Iranian government officials have reportedly launched a concerted effort to change his mind, saying the decision is crucial to the regime’s survival.